The incidence of shoulder arthroplasty: rise and future projections compared with hip and knee arthroplasty

BACKGROUND: There remains a paucity of epidemiologic data from recent years on the incidence of shoulder arthroplasty. We aimed to examine the recent trends and predict future projections of hemiarthroplasty (HA), anatomic (aTSA), and reverse shoulder arthroplasty (RSA), as well as compare these predictions to those for total hip (THA) and knee arthroplasty (TKA).

METHODS: The National Inpatient Sample was queried from 2011 to 2017 for HA, aTSA, and RSA, as well as TKA and THA. Linear and Poisson regression was performed to project annual procedural incidence and volume to the year 2025.

RESULTS: Between 2011 and 2017, the number of primary shoulder arthroplasties increased by 103.7%. In particular, RSA increased by 191.3%, with 63,845 RSAs performed in 2017. All projection models demonstrated significant increases in shoulder arthroplasty volume and incidence from 2017 to 2025. By 2025, the linear model predicts that shoulder arthroplasty volume will increase by 67.2% to 174,810 procedures whereas the Poisson model predicts a 235.2% increase, to 350,558 procedures by 2025. These growth rate projections outpace those of THA and TKA.

CONCLUSIONS: The number of shoulder arthroplasties has been increasing in recent years, largely because of the exponential increases in RSA. The overall incidence is increasing at a greater rate than TKA or THA, with projections continuing to rise over the next decade. These data and projections can be used by policy makers and hospitals to drive initiatives aimed at meeting these projected future demands.